Recently unemployed, I'm spending the election day watching the exit polls and news coverage of the day's events. I started the day in Philadelphia, where all night, Kerry supporters were in the streets rallying voters to make sure they would get out the vote despite the threat of rain. After flying back to the Bay Area, I voted and immediately made my way to Patxi's Pizza where I've been drinking, eating and watching for the past few hours.
I'm making my early prediction for Kerry based on three factors: 1. Record turnouts have historically favored the challenger. 2. The Iowa Electronic Markets and other sources are reporting that political betting markets have taken a huge swing in favor of Kerry (referenced in an earlier post). 3. The polls predicting the election prior to today have fundamental flaws in their methodologies, based on their exclusion of young, transient voters and those who use cell phones as their primary telephone.
For the benefit of the Bay Area locals who read my blog, I'll be buying pizza and beer at Patxi's until Tara kicks me out. Feel free to stop by -- Because I'm certainly not driving home for several hours.